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For months, the Democratic race had settled into an equilibrium in which Sanders held a slight edge in New Hampshire while Clinton had a slightly larger lead in Iowa. But a new Quinnipiac University poll out Tuesdayof Iowa Democrats showed Sanders pulling ahead of the front runner by 3 percentage points. At the same time, a new Monmouth University poll of New Hampshire Democrats found the Vermont senator expanding his lead there to a whopping 14 percentage points.

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But a more accurate assessment of the state of the race is one of deep uncertainty. “George Gallup called polling in primaries a fool errand, and having been through this a few cycles, I know what he was talking about,” said Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Before Tuesday, just two surveys since February had shown cheap Canada Goose Sanders ahead in the state. One was another Quinnipiac poll from September showing him up 1 point and the other claimed Sanders was beating Clinton by 10 percentage points a clear outlier.

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New Hampshire, meanwhile, has earned its nickname as the “graveyard for pollsters.” With its canada goose deals primary just nine days after Iowa’s caucuses, it’s nearly impossible to know how the outcome of the earlier caucus will impact Granite Staters’ decisions.

And there, Sanders is betting big on young people, undeclared voters (the 40% of the electorate who is not registered with either party) and new voters. All three groups tend to have lower turnout rates, so how many actually vote is also difficult to predict.

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One silver lining for Clinton and her team with regard to the tough polling numbers is that the datacouldhelp right size expectations of her performance.

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