The Americans have no need for Pakistan
Defence Analyst K Subrahmanyam
India’s leading defence analyst, K Subrahmanyam, is not ready to take any bets on the outcome of the Vajpayee Musharraf talks. A former director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis and now convener of the National Security Advisory Board, Subrahmanyam was also head of the committee that reviewed the events leading to the Pakistani invasion of Kargil. He spoke to Ramesh Menon in New Delhi. Excerpts:
canada goose Frankly, isn’t Kashmir the central issue of the talks? Can Atal Bihari Vajpayee and General Pervez Musharraf both talk without discussing the core issue of Kashmir? canada goose
uk canada goose outlet Kashmir is the core issue, but that core is embedded in a bigger issue that is animosity between the two countries. Kashmir is not the reason for it; Kashmir is a symptom of the animosity. Therefore, the larger issue is the distrust between India and Pakistan. uk canada goose outlet
canada goose uk shop It arises from the fact that Pakistan defines itself in terms that are a negation of India. Pakistan subscribes to the theory of the clash of canada goose clearance civilizations. Long before Prof Samuel Huntington wrote about it, the clash of civilizations was originally invented by Jinnah and the Muslim league in India that they could not live with the Hindus. So long as Pakistan subscribes to that thesis, there is no likelihood of any peaceful Canada Goose Outlet coexistence between the two countries. canada goose uk shop
canada goose coats Therefore, the core issue of Kashmir cannot be reached cheap Canada Goose unless you break the larger outer shell, which is the two nation theory and the total mistrust between the two countries. Confidence building and creation of trust must come first before we can start discussing Kashmir. If you are persisting in your distrust there can be no solution to Kashmir. canada goose coats
Will confidence building work at this point?
uk canada goose It depends upon how the Pakistanis interpret their place in the world. The Pakistanis do not seem to understand that the Cold War is over. It was over ten years ago. The Americans are not going to support them. The Americans have no need for Pakistan. America supported Pakistan not because they liked Pakistan but because Pakistan was useful in the Cold War. Pakistan is of no use to them any longer. uk canada goose
canada goose coats on likecanadagoose.com sale The point is that Americans do not subscribe to Pakistan’s thesis that Kashmir should be handed over to them. President Clinton made it quite clear to them when he was here. And when he went to Pakistan he gave them a stern lecture on their national television. canada goose coats on sale
Today, Americans do not support a separate secessionist Islamic entity in Bosnia, buy canada goose jacket cheap Kosovo, Macedonia, Yugoslavia and even Chechnya. Americans do not support secessionism Canada Goose sale any longer, as it will create a problem for them. The Russians obviously cannot support secessionism because of Chechnya. The Chinese cannot support it because they have the Tibetan problem.
The Pakistanis do not seem to be able to tackle the basic fact that in the world today, they have no support on the Kashmir issue. So, when Jaswant Singh talks of a conducive climate today, he is not referring to the conducive climate in the Kashmir valley. He is referring to a conducive climate internationally.
By inviting General Musharraf, India has canada goose coats changed its policy on Pakistan. India was earlier very stern about the fact that it would not talk to Pakistan unless it stopped cross border terrorism. How has it changed now?
Whenever canada goose you have to take an initiative, you have to make a U turn in international politics. This is what the Chinese and the Americans did even at the height of the Cultural Revolution. The Americans were ready to deal with them as it suited their interests.
Similarly, Stalin and Hitler were prepared to make deals with each other. Therefore, to say, look, you are not consistent is something like middle class morality, but that is not international politics.
Canada Goose sale There is a lack of trust right now canada goose outlet between the two countries, especially after Kargil. Will it affect talks? Will having a third party in these circumstances help? Canada Goose sale
Canada Goose Jackets A third canada goose deals party cannot help in this respect. Because first of all, India will not Canada Goose online accept a third party. We are aware that the US does not tilt towards Pakistan now as much as it did during the Cold War. canada goose store But you will have to give the United States another 15 years to play a mediatory role because for 50 years they have been with Pakistan. And all the other countries went along with the Americans at that time. Therefore, you will have to give them some time. At the present moment, for the next 10 or 15 years, there cannot be any third party mediation. Canada Goose Jackets
Will India take a tough stand at the talks? What do you think will happen?
There is no question of a tough stand or non tough stand. Actually, it is quite a laughable proposition Pakistan does not permit free and fair elections in their country. Their army admits it rigged all the elections. When they wanted Benazir Bhutto as prime minister, they rigged it in her favour. When they wanted Nawaz Sharief, they rigged it in his favour. And finally, they have got rid of both and taken over. They can’t go about talking about self determination, democracy and referendum to other people. They do not have the credentials for that.
Canada Goose online Kashmir is a very complex issue. If you start talking of self determination for Kashmiris, you must understand that Kashmiris are only one of ten communities in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. There are others like the Baltis, Multis, Mirpuris, Ladakhis, Dogras, Pundits, Gujjars and Bakharwals. To say it is a group of one people is nonsense. Jammu Kashmir is not a homogeneous Tamil Nadu or Kerala. All this is very complex. Canada Goose online
buy canada goose jacket cheap Americans will oppose any secessionism in the world because it upsets them in the Balkans and elsewhere. This is not going to be settled in one meeting. First, trust has to be created between the two countries. Then we can think of how to enable the two countries to interact with each other. buy canada goose jacket cheap
Then are 25 million Mohajirs in Pakistan. They are separated from their families in India. Won’t they be shedding tears to be reunited with their people in India? If you are logical, you will see this. But the point is they are so obsessed.
cheap canada goose uk How do you see the move to withdraw the cease fire? cheap canada goose uk
What the Government of India announced was a non initiation of combat operations by the security forces. A cease fire is something between two organised armed forces. You don’t have a cease fire when one side has an organised armed force and the other is one of numerous small groups which have no integrated command and control. Maybe it has an integrated command somewhere in Pakistan. This was not something both countries had decided. It was a unilateral act by India.
Canada Goose Outlet India could have sustained it if it had worked. After six months, they had to withdraw it as it did not work. So, you cannot say that abandoning the cease fire was a setback. It did not buy canada goose jacket depend upon the Indian government. It depended on the terrorists. Canada Goose Outlet
canadian goose jacket What do you think of the present National Security Council and the continuation of Brajesh Mishra as national security adviser? canadian goose jacket
The problem is that the National Security Council has not started functioning. It has not even had one meeting. That has to be set right.
Brajesh Mishra is one of the most effective secretaries of the prime minister. He had a significant role in the nuclear tests. Also, in India becoming nuclear and adjusting itself in the new nuclear paradigm of the world. He has given significant service to the nation.
cheap Canada Goose However, having said that, the canada goose black friday sale question is how do you organise the work of the NSC. If the PM wants him to be both national security adviser and principal secretary, it is okay. But he has to organise his office in such a way that he can do justice to both and ensure that the NSC functions. He needs enough staff, particularly at a deputy level, who will feed him all the information he needs. That has not been done. So the NSC has suffered. cheap Canada Goose
canada goose clearance sale The Cabinet Committee on National Security deals with day to day matters. But long term aspects of security like assessments of situations, direct action, follow up of action taken canadian goose jacket are to be done Canada Goose Jackets by the NSC. The long term planning has been neglected Canada Goose Parka canada goose clearance sale.
